Post-demonetisation,
India slowly returning to 'normalcy':
SBI
"When we found out that 86 percent of the currency had been demonetized,
… the sheer size of the task was intimidating. On top of that, remember
we had no arrangements ahead of time," Arundhati Bhattacharya,
chairwoman of the State Bank of India (SBI), told CNBC's "Managing
Asia."
India's largest bank was blindsided by Indian Prime Minister Narendra
Modi's demonetization drive with daily business severely disrupted, the
head of the lender said, but the outcome sees economy returning to
"normalcy," and a surge in deposits from the cash swap has given more
room on lending.
"When we found out that 86 percent of the currency had been demonetized,
… the sheer size of the task was intimidating. On top of that, remember
we had no arrangements ahead of time," Arundhati Bhattacharya,
chairwoman of the State Bank of India
(SBI), told CNBC's "Managing Asia."
On Nov. 8 last year, India implemented a shock currency swap that
required all 500 and 1,000 rupee notes be exchanged for new tender in
500 and 2,000 rupee denominations by the end of 2016. Nearly all
transactions were handled through the banking system to meet the
deadline.
That put the spotlight on state-owned SBI as the top lender and with a footprint that stands to become even larger if it succeeds in a planned
merger with five of its associate banks.
"(Demonetization) caught the entire system off guard … We had just 24
hours in which to set up exactly the processes by which we could do this
– move cash around the country, ensure that there were enough counters
for people to come in and get their money exchanged, get our own people
trained on how these things would be done. So a huge amount of
activity," Bhattacharya said.
Access to cash was restricted during the swap and and there were
complaints the drive impacted the poor disproportionately. But
Bhattacharya said the initial shocks of demonetization were gradually
wearing off and the Indian economy was "very close" to returning to
"normalcy."
"I won't say it is 100 percent but mostly, I think things have come back
and if you look at the amount of revenues that many of the companies
are getting, many of them are quite surprised at the very sharp V-shaped
recovery they've seen," Bhattacharya said.
Discretionary spending might have decreased during the period, but this
was because of the absence of a "mode of exchange" rather than
diminished demand,
Bhattacharya explained. "Once the mode of exchange
came back in, the demand has picked up again," she added.
The positive sentiment was reflected in better-than-expected Q4 GDP
figures released Wednesday that showed a 7 percent growth rate for the
quarter, although some experts cautioned against prematurely celebrating
the beat.
Going forward, the SBI chairwoman said she believed India would bounce
back as the world's fastest growing economy "in another two quarters
time."
"(Demonetization) was a temporary setback and if you consider the
long-term benefits, then I think that definitely outweighs the temporary
setback we have had," Bhattacharya said.
One segment of SBI's business that was impacted in a good way was the
surge in deposit inflows received as people rushed to put their money in
banks, inadvertently causing SBI's funding base to sharply increase.
"In my entire career, I have never seen this kind of deposit flow. We
were growing at something like 8 to 10 percent. Suddenly, we were
growing at 22 to 25 percent, which is huge. We've also seen that the
amount of money flowing out once these curbs have been lifted … (but) at
least 60 to 65 percent is still in the bank. So to that extent,
lendable resources have definitely gone up," Bhattacharya said
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