Rises as Trump policy fuels safe haven demand Traders were also awaiting 

The US Federal Reserve's two-day meeting on monetary policy starting on Tuesday for cues on US interest rate hikes. Gold rose on Tuesday on increased safe haven demand as US President Donald Trump's tough stance on immigration rattled global markets, with prices finding further support from a weaker dollar. Traders were also awaiting the US Federal Reserve's two-day meeting on monetary policy starting on Tuesday for cues on US interest rate hikes. Spot gold rose 0.4 percent to USD 1,200.00 per ounce by 0307 GMT, while US gold futures edged up 0.5 percent to USD 1,199.6. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was down 0.1 percent at 100.34. Asian shares were on the defensive as stringent curbs on travel to the United States ordered by President Donald Trump brought home to investors that he is serious about putting his radical campaign pledges into action. 

"There are talks that the ban could affect the tech and energy sectors and this suggests that there could be some growth challenges if the ban is prolonged, so the current risk aversion (driving gold markets) comes as no surprise," OCBC analyst Barnabas Gan said. Spot gold may edge up to USD 1,205 per ounce, as it has pierced resistance at USD 1,197, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao. Traders were also eyeing a meeting of the US Fed on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Fed, which raised interest rates in December, has signaled as many as three rate rises in 2017. Higher rates could mean a higher US currency, which makes dollar-denominated gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, potentially dampening demand. "The market sentiment is for the Fed to stay pat in the upcoming meeting," Gan said. In other precious metals, spot silver was up 0.2 percent, at USD 17.14 per ounce, while platinum edged up by 0.5 percent, to USD 990.30. Palladium rose 0.7 percent, to USD 745.40 per ounce



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India better positioned against proposed US tax laws:

 Report Under the current proposals for the US border adjustment tax, exports will be exempted from the calculation of US corporate taxable incomes, while imports will be taxed. |  Significant uncertainty surrounds the possible US shift to a new border adjustment tax, but India and Indonesia are better positioned as compared to other Asian economies, says a report. Under the current proposals for the US border adjustment tax, exports will be exempted from the calculation of US corporate taxable incomes, while imports will be taxed. "In a scenario of no or limited USD adjustment, US import prices could rise as much as 25 percent, resulting in Asia exports declining 3-4 percent in aggregate, and shaving around 0.5 percent from the region's GDP," Credit Suisse said in a research note. 

According to global financial services major Credit Suisse, Asian economies like Vietnam, Taiwan, Korea and Malaysia look most vulnerable to a possible US move to border adjustment tax as these countries export product mix that have higher price elasticity, meaning demand is more sensitive to changes in import prices. The hit to GDP of these most exposed four economies would be around 0.5-0.9 percent due to a likely decline in exports to the US, the report noted. "India and Indonesia, on the other hand, are better positioned, partly because their export products are less price elastic," the report adding that these two economies are "less exposed to border tax adjustments in the US due to their lower share of exports to the US as a share of GDP". The report jotted down some of the other potential risks to Asian economies that could come from the US border adjustment tax like -- rapid USD appreciation, other economies (like China) would also respond with its own version of border adjustment tax or other similar policies among others, it added 

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Industry 4.0 necessary to hike mfg share in GDP:

 Experts The government is aiming to increase the share of manufacturing to 25 percent of GDP from the present 17 percent, with a view to creating millions of jobs and pushing the country's economic growth. Indian industry can not shy away from adopting Industry 4.0 and the country needs to focus on using green technologies and best global practices to increase the share of manufacturing in GDP, experts say. The government is aiming to increase the share of manufacturing to 25 percent of GDP from the present 17 percent, with a view to creating millions of jobs and pushing the country's economic growth. "To achieve this target, Indian industry has to adopt Industry 4.0 as it is important to boost manufacturing," Hospira Healthcare Managing Director Srini Srinivasan said, adding that this quality of products and ease of doing business would play major role.

 Industry 4.0 refers to the current trend of automation and data exchange in manufacturing technologies. He was speaking at a session on 'Industry 4.0: leveraging for efficiency, adaptability, productivity, - what is in it for India' at the Andhra Pradesh investment summit here today. Summarising the session, DIPP Secretary Ramesh Abhishek said that to adopt 'Industry 4.0', India Inc has to adopt best global practices of manufacturing and it also requires investments. "In the discussion it came out that we have to adopt Industry 4.0... Industry has to adopt smart manufacturing," he said adding, other areas which need special focus include, good quality products, alignment of jobs, skilling, perfect supply chain, innovation. Renault Nissan Alliance, Vehicle Production Plant and Plant Engineering, Vice President Keerthi Prakash said, India cannot shy away from Industry 4.0.

 "We have to look at Industry 4.0 seriously," he said. According to experts, 'Industry 4.0' or the fourth industrial revolution integrates the digital and manufacturing world. Technologies such as big data and analytics, autonomous robots Internet of things, cyber security and augmented reality are transforming the manufacturing landscape. This can be the fulcrum that catapults Indian manufacturing and thus make India a truly global hub. This transition will require significant economic and social transformation and political and institutional framework. Ease of doing business is also critical for Industry 4.0. government along with states are working on this, Abhishek added. Siemens Ltd MD and CEO Sunil Mathur said that in India industry has to move from electrified to automated to digitalised machines. Tata Chemicals MD R Mukundan said, if we want to move forward the focus of the Government should be on skilling and if we don't get the right skills in place 'Industry 4.0' has been rightly feared that it would lead to huge amount of job loses and also job mis-allocations. For this, he said, there is a need to focus on supply chain. "In my view power of Industry 4.0 can be unleashed terrifically in many sectors," he added

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Sensex, Nifty may see weak opening; L&T, HDFC in focus 

The market may open weaker as the Street gets ready for the Union Budget, and takes cues from global developments. L&T will be in focus after it reported its December quarter earnings, while HDFC and Tech Mahindra will declare their Q3 results later in the day. The market on Monday may see a slightly weak opening, as indicated by the trend on SGX Nifty. The index is trading half a percent lower in early morning trade. The Street will also watch out for mixed cues on the global front, even as US President Donald Trump’s protectionist stance spooks investors. The Indian market had seen a strong performance last week in the run-up to the Union Budget and steady earnings. In the Asian markets, Nikkei was trading lower by 0.77 percent after data showed that December retail sales rose 0.6 percent from the previous year. Another key event to watch for the markets there would be Bank of Japan’s crucial two-day monetary policy meeting. Meanwhile, markets in China, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan are shut for public holidays. Wall Street ended on a mixed note on Friday after the initial fourth-quarter GDP read fell short of estimates, but managed to record weekly gains of around 1 percent.

 The Dow Jones slipped 10 points but held above 20,000-mark. US President Trump Friday introduced immigration curbs that has sparked a backlash in the United States and abroad. He put a 120-day hold on allowing refugees into the country, an indefinite ban on refugees from Syria and a 90-day bar on citizens from Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen. In Europe, markets closed lower on Friday, with investors digesting corporate earnings and fluctuations in currency markets. Auto stocks were the worst performers as they were trading down by 0.92 percent after Trump's hawkish remarks on trade tariffs for the sector. Back home, the market began the February Futures and Options (F&O) series on a positive note as benchmark equity indices saw good buying interest throughout the day, but lost a bit of its early gains towards closing as index heavyweight ITC lost 3 percent post Q3. The Sensex closed up 174.32 points or 0.6 percent at 27882.46, and the Nifty was up 38.50 points or 0.4 percent at 8,641.25. Among stocks to watch would be Larsen and Toubro, HDFC, Tech Mahindra and Grasim. L&T, on January 28, reported a mixed Q3 performance.

 Its consolidated profit in Q3 increased 39 percent year-on-year to Rs 972.4 crore, but slashed its full year revenue growth guidance to 10 percent from 12-15 percent earlier due to challenging business conditions. Good operational performance boosted botto mline growth. In the earnings space, HDFC may report a 10 percent growth in its December quarter net profit. Its asset under management (AUM) growth is seen at 15 percent, while gross NPAs may be below 0.85 percent, according to  poll. Tech Mahindra is expected to report a steady quarter, while its constant currency growth is seen at 3 percent. The company’s topline growth will be supported by incremental contribution from its target group, analysts polled by state. The dollar slipped, nudging off a one-week high against a basket of currencies after treasury yields declined on data showing the US economy grew at a slower-than-expected pace. Also traders digested the tensions sparked by Trump’s order halting immigration from some nations. Crude prices were lower, extending losses, after data suggested drilling is ramping up in the United States, easing the focus on efforts by OPEC and other producers to support prices by cutting supplies. Gold prices remained steady, but traded below 1,200 dollars an ounce. 

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Gold, silver drop to 2-week lows on global cues 

Globally, gold fell half a per cent early today and headed for its first weekly loss of the year, as a two-day rise in the dollar prompted some investors to cash in gains after the metal hit its highest since mid November earlier this week. |  Gold extended its losses for third straight session and fell to two-week low at the bullion market here today following stockists and investors selling amid subdued local buying interest driven by bearish International markets. 

 Silver fell further owing to persistent speculative selling and reduced industrial demand. Standard gold (99.5 purity) dropped by Rs 420 to end at Rs 28,705 per 10 gram from Wednesday's level of Rs 29,125. Pure gold (99.9 purity) also dipped by a similar margin to finish at Rs 28,855 per 10 grams against Rs 29,275 previously. Silver (.999 fineness) also slumped by Rs 520 per kg to close at Rs 40,890 as compared to Rs 41,410 earlier. Globally, gold fell half a per cent early today and headed for its first weekly loss of the year, as a two-day rise in the dollar prompted some investors to cash in gains after the metal hit its highest since mid November earlier this week. Spot gold was down 0.4 percent at USD 1,184.11 per ounce at early trade and Silver fell 0.2 percent at USD 16.72 per ounce

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Wall Street slips after soft GDP data, earnings

 The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 7.13 points, or 0.04 percent, to 20,093.78, the S&P 500 lost 1.99 points, or 0.09 percent, to 2,294.69 and the Nasdaq Composite added 5.61 points, or 0.1 percent, to 5,660.78. US stocks edged lower for a second consecutive session on Friday as some underwhelming corporate earnings and gross domestic product data offset recent enthusiasm over policy actions by President Donald Trump. US economic growth slowed more than expected in the fourth quarter, with GDP rising at a 1.9 percent annual rate, below the 2.2 percent rise expected by economists and the 3.5 percent growth pace logged in the third quarter. Chevron fell 2.4 percent to USD 113.79 after its quarterly profit fell short of analysts' expectations. The stock was the biggest drag on the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average indexes. 

The S&P energy index , down 0.9 percent, was the worst performing of the 11 major S&P sectors. Starbucks curbed gains on the Nasdaq. Its shares dropped 4.0 percent to USD 56.12 after the world's biggest coffee seller trimmed its full-year revenue forecast. "The market has rallied on expectations of good things to happen in the future but as we are getting the data that is factual of what is going on, it is not as good as people are hoping," said Andrew Slimmon, portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management in Chicago. "Which tells you, this earnings recovery that is expected in 2017, a good chunk of it is already baked into the market." Even with some disappointing corporate results, fourth-quarter earnings are expected to show growth of 6.8 percent, which would mark the biggest increase in two years and second straight quarter of growth, according to Thomson Reuters data.

 The Dow remained above 20,000 for the third straight day, after breaching the milestone for the first time on Wednesday as the post-election rally reignited. For the week, the Dow rose 1.3 percent, the S&P 500 gained 1 percent and the Nasdaq advanced 1.9 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 7.13 points, or 0.04 percent, to 20,093.78, the S&P 500 lost 1.99 points, or 0.09 percent, to 2,294.69 and the Nasdaq Composite added 5.61 points, or 0.1 percent, to 5,660.78. Microsoft rose 2.3 percent to USD 65.78, while Intel gained 1.1 percent to USD37.98 after both reported quarterly results above Wall Street expectations. However, Google parent Alphabet lost 1.4 percent to USD8 45.03 after it posted fourth-quarter profit below analysts' estimates. Colgate-Palmolive slumped 5.2 percent to USD 64.68 after the personal products maker's fourth-quarter revenue missed estimates. Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.35-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.15-to-1 ratio favored decliners. The S&P 500 posted 27 new 52-week highs and 4 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 116 new highs and 26 new lows. About 5.81 billion shares changed hands in US exchanges, compared with the 6.56 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.

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Lot needs to be done by FinMin on black money: 

Par panel The Standing Committee on Finance suggested the "Ministry should give utmost priority to the implementation of Justice M B Shah's panel so that black money stashed abroad may be brought to our hand in time." 

Not satisfied with the Finance Ministry's response on the quantum of unaccounted money brought back from abroad, a Parliamentary Panel said a lot needs to be done regarding unearthing of black money. The Standing Committee on Finance suggested the "Ministry should give utmost priority to the implementation of Justice M B Shah's panel so that black money stashed abroad may be brought to our hand in time." Besides, the panel headed by M Veerapa Moily also said the government should prepare a concrete road map and suitable administrative for smooth rollout of Goods and Services Tax (GST).

 In order to increase revenue, it said, Finance Ministry should usher in next generation tax reforms by ideating afresh about tax policy or regime which only would lead to transformational revenue generation figures in place of current dull situation and incremental figures of revenue both in direct and indirect taxes. "The committee also suggest that a concrete road map as well as suitable administrative measures be prepared and kept ready for smooth rollout of GST," it said. On the issue of black money, the committee said a lot needs to be done by the ministry regarding unearthing of black money.

 A total amount of Rs 4,147 crore was declared during the 90-day black money compliance window, higher than the previously announced amount of Rs 3,770 crore. The committee are not satisfied by the incomplete response of the ministry regarding quantum of unaccounted money brought back from abroad, it said. "Moreover, with a view to preventing and curbing generation of unaccounted money in the first place, the committee are of the view that a combination of policy, legislative and concrete enforcement measures need to be adopted and implemented on priority basis," it said.

 With regard to the sudden surge in the number of cases with Rs 1 crore plus agricultural income, the Committee dissatisfaction over the adhoc manner in which the Department of Revenue has been handling such an important issue. "Such a lapse or overlooking may lead to creation of domestic tax haven in our economy whereby unaccounted or black money may be stashed / hidden under the head / guise of agricultural income," it said. They recommend for stringent action on part of the ministry to check this trend, it said, adding a report on the issue must be presented within one month.

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Direct Tax share in economy at decade low 

Corporate tax collections have risen nearly 12-fold in last 15 years and personal income tax 9 fold but share of direct taxes in the economy has fallen to almost a decade low of 5.47 per cent, according to direct tax data published by the government today. Corporate tax collections have risen nearly 12-fold in last 15 years and personal income tax 9 fold but share of direct taxes in the economy has fallen to almost a decade low of 5.47 per cent, according to direct tax data published by the government today. There was not much differential between corporate tax collections and personal income tax collections in 2000-01. While corporate tax collections that year stood at Rs 35,696 crore, personal income tax collections were Rs 31,764 crore. In 15 years, corporate tax collections have risen 12-fold to Rs 4,54,419 crore in 2015-16 and is more than 58 percent higher than Rs 2,86,801 crore income tax collections

After including other direct taxes, total direct tax collections were Rs 68,305 crore in 2000-01 which have risen to Rs 7,42,295 crore in 2015-16. Prime Minister Narendra Modi took to Twitter to say it was a "landmark" decision to publish income tax data. "It is a big step towards transparency & informed policy making." "Am sure this data will be used by researchers and analysts and lead to enhanced insights for policy making on taxation," he said. The data showed 2.9 crore Indians filed income tax returns and the largest group of tax payers earned an average of Rs 6,94,000 while just six people declared an average income of Rs 68.72 crore in 2012-13 as per the latest data. Share of direct taxes to GDP touched a peak of 6.3 per cent in 2007-08 and has since declined to 5.47 per cent in 2015-16.

 It was 3.25 per cent in 2000-01. Maharashtra contributes the biggest share of direct taxes at Rs 2.77 lakh crore in 2014-15 when total collections were Rs 6.96 lakh crore. Delhi was second biggest contributor at Rs 91,247.90 crore while Karnataka was third at Rs 60,595.22 crore. Modi's home state Gujarat gave Rs 35,912.46 crore of taxes, behind Tamil Nadu's Rs 44,732.62 crore. State wise data for 2015-16 was not available. Direct taxes made up for 36.31 per cent of the total taxes in 2000-01. This ratio has risen to 51.05 per cent in 2015-16. The ratio of direct taxes to total taxes in 2015-

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As Trump amps ups rhetoric, Jim O'Neill turns positive on EMs Valuation-wise,

 Jim O'Neill believe the US market is no longer cheap. "Emerging markets look more interesting than developed markets." | Jim O'Neill (more) Former Chairman, Goldman Sachs | Equity markets, especially in the United States, have been on a tear ever since Donald Trump was elected President, with the Dow Jones index recently taking out the 20,000 level for the first time ever. But despite Trump’s perceived pro-business image and self-dubbed “America-first” policies, economists are concerned whether his protectionist stance may be bad for global growth. Overnight, tensions between the US and Mexico arose after the Trump indicated he was firm in following through with his election promise to build a border wall between the two countries.

 That was worried many, including former Goldman Sachs Chairman Jim O’Neill, who says he is surprised that Trump is following up on what many believed was mere campaign rhetoric. A lot of Trump’s policies stem from his tapping into a rising Western middle class ire against globalization, which they believe has impoverished them at the cost of those in emerging economies. But O’Neill, a believer in globalization and who rose to fame as an analyst after coining the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) acronym fifteen years ago, says he “does not understand why Trump is doing this”. “Trump and his advisors are assuming that American leadership in the world is the same as it was 25-30 years ago, which is not the case,” O’Neill told . 

“Today, China has become nearly as important as the US in all aspects of global trade.” The world’s second largest economy after the US is not just an exporter but also a leading importer for about 70 countries, he pointed out. “And so many countries can carry out having free trade, just not with the United States,” he said, adding that Trump’s moves will also not be good for the US itself, as it will reduce its interconnection with the rest of the world. “I don’t think Trump is getting good economic advice,” he said. Positive on emerging markets However, in what reinforces his view that the US is not the sole economy that underlines that health of the global economy, O’Neill says world growth continues to remain strong. “We’re entering 2017 with the world economy expected to grow closer to 4 percent than 3 percent – the best it has been for years,” he said. 

This, he said, means commodities such as crude oil are likely to continue to rally – a move that may benefit a lot of resource-rich emerging economies. The former Goldman strategist is also positive on India over the medium term, and said that while the effects of demonetization may play out in the near term, economic growth could inch up to 8 percent shortly thereafter. “That kind of policy move is quite good for the medium term and gives me hope India will undertake more serious reform in future.” He maintained that the Union Budget is not that important now for the market, except to drive short-term moves. “I am more interested in where PM Modi is taking the country through effective reform steps to attract more foreign investment,” he said. Valuation-wise, he said the US market is no longer cheap. "Emerging markets look more interesting than developed markets.

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Indian benchmark indices may open up; all eyes on TCS Q3

 SGX Nifty indicates a positive opening for the Indian market. It was up 25 points at 8422. Asian shares traded mixed following a choppy session in the US with stocks ending higher after President-elect Donald Trump held a raucous and freewheeling press conference that analysts said was sparse on economic policy details. SGX Nifty indicates a positive opening for the Indian market.  It was up 25 points at 8422.  Asian shares traded mixed following a choppy session in the US with stocks ending higher after President-elect Donald Trump held a raucous and freewheeling press conference that analysts said was sparse on economic policy details. 

The news conference concluded with Donald Trump, who will be inaugurated as the 45th President of the United States on January 20, not providing further clarity on his proposed policies. The Nasdaq composite fell after Trump made his remarks, as the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) fell 3 percent. The tech-heavy index, however, ended the session 0.2 percent higher at a record closing level. The S&P 500 advanced 0.3 percent, shrugging off a 1 percent decline in health care. Energy stocks led the way in the S&P, rising 1.2 percent. European stocks closed higher on Wednesday as investors digested comments from Trump's first press conference

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Trump mocks Indian call center, but says India a great nation

 The billionaire from New York said that he called up his credit card company to find out whether their customer support is based in the US or overseas. Republican presidential front runner Donald Trump has used fake Indian accent to mock a call center representative in India. At the same time, he described India as a great place, asserting that he is not angry with Indian leaders. The billionaire from New York said that he called up his credit card company to find out whether their customer support is based in the US or overseas. "Guess what, you're talking to a person from India. How the hell does that work?" he told his supporters in Delaware. "So I called up, under the guise I'm checking on my card, I said, 'Where are you from?'" Trump said and then he copied the response from the call center in a fake Indian accent. "We are from India," Trump impersonated the response. "Oh great, that's wonderful," he said as he pretended to hang up the phone. 

"India is great place. I am not upset with other leaders. I am upset with our leaders for being so stupid," he said. "I am not angry with China. I am not angry at Japan. I am not angry with Vietnam, India...all these countries." Trump mentioned the fake call to India during his remarks on what he described as "crooked banking." Delaware, is a hub for the America's banking and credit- card industry. Topping the list include Bank of America, Citibank Delaware, M&T Bank and PNC Financial Services Group. "They are making a lot of money," he said. "You can't allow policies that allows China, Mexico, Japan, Vietnam, India. You can't allow policies that allows business to be ripped out of the United States like candy from a baby," Trump said in his address. "

The manufacturing jobs are being stolen. Our jobs are being taken. We are losing at every front. There is nothing good. Our country does not win anymore. The jobs are being stripped. Factories are closing. We are not going to let this happen anymore," he said. Trump said he has as many as 378 companies registered in Delaware, where the Republican presidential primaries is scheduled on April 26 along with several other states. He is leading in polls against his other primary rivals. In his speech, Trump praised Delaware's status as a tax shelter and slammed President Barack Obama for not using the term "radical Islamists" in the fight against terrorism. "I want to run against crooked Hillary," he said, reiterating that a Trump vs Clinton race would bring the greatest turn out in the history of the American elections. "We will stomp on Hillary Clinton no one's ever done." He was also critical of Indian-American South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who did not endorse him during the primary. Delaware has 16 delegates. Trump has 845 delegates, followed by Ted Cruz (559) and John Kasich (148)

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Sensex, Nifty may see cautious opening;

 ITC, Wipro in focus While the market may look to carry forward its pre-Budget rally, investors may also be cautious ahead of key earnings as well as mixed global cues. ITC, Wipro will be in focus as the former will declare its results, while the Street may react to Wipro's negative earnings that were declared on a pre-Budget rally during the previous three trading sessions, the market may tread with caution, amid mixed cues and ahead of a key earnings week next week. The SGX Nifty is trading 0.39 percent lower at the time of writing. Asian markets were trading positive in early morning trade. Nikkei was up over 0.30 percent as investors digested better-than-expected inflation data. December core consumer prices fell 0.2 percent year-on-year, at its slowest since February. In the US, equities closed mixed after hitting new record highs, as investors digested several key earnings reports. 

The Dow Jones rose about 30 points, with Goldman Sachs contributing the most gains, hitting a new record high and holding on to its 20,000-level. About 30 percent of S&P 500 companies have reported quarterly earnings, with 70 percent exceeding analyst expectations on the bottom line and 56 percent beating sales estimates. Tensions between the US and Mexico escalated after Trump’s views that the latter should pay for the wall at the border or skip the scheduled meeting. The construction is set to cost USD 14 billion. The Republican Party leadership has said that Congress will clear the funds for the wall. Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto has said that he would not be attending a previously-scheduled meeting with Trump. This the first in a series of actions to crackdown on illegal immigrants and bolster national security. Trump has also cut federal grants to sanctuary cities that protect immigrants. European markets end mixed Thursday. Technology and healthcare stocks were the best performers as investors remained confident that Trump would carry on implementing his campaign pledges, including cutting taxes and deregulation.

 FTSE 100 was trading flat with a negative bias, while the DAX was up 0.3 percent. Back home, the pre-Budget rally continued for third straight session Wednesday, with the Sensex rising 361 points intraday and the Nifty closing January series above 8600 level, aided by banking & financials, FMCG and infra stocks. Benchmark indices came back to pre-demonetisation level on account of stable earnings. The 30-share BSE Sensex was up 332.56 points or 1.21 percent at 27708.14 and the 50-share NSE Nifty surged 126.95 points or 1.50 percent to 8602.75, the highest closing level since November 1, 2016. Among stocks to watch would be Wipro, ITC, Bharti Airtel and Ashok Leyland due to developments on the earnings front. Wipro disappointed the street once again as topline missed expectations. The company also slashed its fourth quarter guidance to 1-2 percent. IT services revenue in dollar terms, which closely tracks by the street, declined 0.7 percent quarter-on-quarter to USD 1902.8 million but constant currency growth was 0.6 percent. From the auto pack, Ashok Leyland’s earnings were below estimates as profits declined 13 percent year on year. High discounts and gross margin pressure due to high raw material cost weighed in on the earnings. 

Later in the day, ITC will declare its December quarter results  poll sees a 3 percent decline in profit. Cigarette revenue growth and volumes will be crucial as majority on street expect 2-3% decline in cigarette volumes. The stock will also be on the radar for excise duty announcements in the Union Budget. The dollar gained against the Mexican Peso after the Nieto cancelled the said meeting with Trump. The dollar index saw a rebound from 7-week lows. Crude prices declined marginally after 2 percent surge overnight as plentiful supplies and bulging inventories put a cap on gains. Meanwhile, gold fell to a two-week low on the back of a strengthening dollar and a rise in yields from US treasury bonds 

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India-EU FTA to benefit apparel sector: 

 The CII-BCG report also suggested that the state governments should promote infrastructure with plug and play facilities. India-EU FTA to benefit apparel sector: Report A free trade agreement with the European Union (EU) besides rationalisation of taxes and duties would help in promoting the growth of India's apparel sector, says a report. The CII-BCG report also suggested that the state governments should promote infrastructure with plug and play facilities. "Duties and taxes must be rationalised to avoid inefficiencies and high energy and overall costs. A power subsidy, inclusion of power charges under GST, and similar rates for both cotton and synthetic products are recommended," the report said.

 It said industry should engage in driving productivity through extensive training and investments in process improvements and automation. The report "strongly calls for a free trade agreement with the EU. An added provision could be to treat the poor states of India on a similar basis as least developed countries," the report added. India and EU are negotiating a free trade pace since June 2007. The talks were stalled on several issues including IPR. It also said that is essential, accompanied by focused marketing interventions such as global roadshows. Companies should invest in product development and in cutting edge innovations, it said. 

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Modi, Trump discuss trade, south asia security, global terrorism

 During their conversation, the two leaders extended invitations to each other for visits. "During a call with Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, President Trump emphasised that the US considers India a true friend and partner in addressing challenges around the world," the White House said in a statement. Modi, Trump discuss trade, south asia security, global terrorismAmerica considers India a "true friend and partner", US President Donald Trump told Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a phone conversation during which they resolved to stand "shoulder-to-shoulder" in the global fight against terrorism and work together for defence and security. During their conversation, the two leaders extended invitations to each other for visits. "During a call with Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, President Trump emphasised that the US considers India a true friend and partner in addressing challenges around the world," the White House said in a statement. 

 "President Trump looked forward to hosting Prime Minister Modi in the US later this year," it said. The two leaders discussed opportunities to strengthen the partnership between the US and India in broad areas such as the economy and defence. Besides this, they also discussed security in the region of South and Central Asia. President Trump and Prime Minister Modi resolved that the US and India stand shoulder-to-shoulder in the global fight against terrorism, the statement said. Modi, who is the fifth foreign leader Trump have spoken with over phone after being sworn-in as the new US President on January 20, said, they "agreed to work closely in the coming days to further strengthen our bilateral ties". "Had a warm conversation with President late last evening," the Prime Minister tweeted. "Have also invited President Trump to visit India," Modi said. After Trump surprised the world with his historic victory in the November 8 general elections, Modi was among the first world leaders to have congratulated Trump. During his gruelling election campaign, India was among the few countries in addition to Israel with whom Trump spoke of strengthening ties if elected to power. On January 21, Trump spoke with British Prime Minister Theresa May, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto. On Sunday, Trump spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and yesterday he had a telephonic conversation with the Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. 

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Xiaomi sold 250,000 smartphones in 10 minutes in India 

 The numbers will please the $45 billion start-up after it faced a tough year in 2016. It has seen growth slow in its domestic market and is gearing up to losing Hugo Barra, the executive they poached from Google in 2013, who heads up Xiaomi's international expansion. Xiaomi sold 250,000 smartphones in 10 minutes in India Chinese electronics maker Xiaomi said it sold 250,000 of its Redmi Note 4 handsets in 10 minutes in India, it said on Tuesday, calling it the "biggest smartphone sale in the history" of the country. With your powers combined, #RedmiNote4 achieved an amazing feat in record time! Thank you for your love & support, hit RT NOW! The numbers will please the USD 45 billion start-up after it faced a tough year in 2016.

 It has seen growth slow in its domestic market and is gearing up to losing Hugo Barra, the executive they poached from Google in 2013, who heads up Xiaomi's international expansion. Xiaomi's Redmi Note 4 launched last week in India and has a 5.5-inch screen, metal body and a 13-megapixel camera. It's the follow on from the Redmi Note 3 which sold 3.6 million units in India last year, according to Barra. The figure of 250,000 unit sales of the Redmi Note 4 came during a flash sale on Xiaomi's own website and e-commerce platform Flipkart. The Chinese upstart is desperate to find growth in new markets like India because having once been the number one vendor in China, Xiaomi has seen its market share eaten away by the likes of Huawei in the high-end, and Oppo and Vivo in the mid-to-low-segment. Xiaomi Chief Executive Lei Jun admitted recently that the company had grown "too fast". In India however, Xiaomi has been growing strong and has around 9 percent market share, according to Counterpoint Research. India is Xiaomi's biggest market outside of China and last year generated USD 1 billion in annual revenue. 


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Gold steady as unease with Trump policy weighs on dollar

 Spot gold was mostly unchanged at USD 1,217.42 per ounce by 0337 GMT, after hitting their strongest since November 22 at USD 1,219.59 earlier in the session. Gold prices were steady on Tuesday as the dollar remained under pressure on signs that United States President Donald Trump would adopt a protectionist stance on trade. Spot gold was mostly unchanged at USD 1,217.42 per ounce by 0337 GMT, after hitting their strongest since November 22 at USD 1,219.59 earlier in the session. US gold futures inched up 0.2 percent, to USD 1,218. Trump formally withdrew the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal on Monday and told US manufacturing executives he would impose a hefty border tax on firms that import products after moving American factories overseas. "We are looking at gold hitting USD 1,250 within weeks. The rationale is very simple. The market was in honeymoon with Trump. With him in power now, the reality starts to bite," said Dominic Schnider of UBS Wealth Management in Hong Kong.

"The market starts to realise the euphoria on how he starts to accelerate the growth and is disappointed. Maybe his policies are inflationary rather than growth supportive." Trump's nominee for Treasury Secretary Steven said that an excessively strong dollar was negative in the short term, according to a report by Bloomberg on Monday. That put additional pressure on the dollar. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell for a third day by 0.2 percent to 99.930. Trump's campaign calls for tax cuts and more infrastructure spending have boosted US shares and the dollar, as well as driving a selloff in US Treasury bills, but his protectionist statements and a flurry of off-the-cuff Tweets have kept many investors from adding to risky positions.

 "Regardless of Trump, the main story for gold is negative interest rates in the US We are not expecting the Fed to raise rates in March and it's just going to be two hikes and that's roughly priced in to the market," Schnider said. Spot gold looks exhausted and may again fail to break a strong resistance at USD 1,219 per ounce before retracing towards a support at USD 1,196, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao. Among other precious metals, silver was flat at USD 17.19 per ounce while platinum gained 0.5 percent, to USD 983.35. Palladium dropped by 0.6 percent to USD 771.80 an ounce, after hitting USD 795.60, its highest since May 2015, in the previous session



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No fake currency in circulation post note-ban:

 Bokil Anil Bokil, founder of Pune-based think tank ArthaKranti, who was part of the team that claims to have suggested demonetisation to the government today said "no fake currency is in circulation in the system" after the note ban. | Anil Bokil, founder of Pune-based think tank ArthaKranti, who was part of the team that claims to have suggested demonetisation to the government today said "no fake currency is in circulation in the system" after the note ban. "The whole thing is now transparent. One more serious thing is that there is no consideration of fake currency. Another thing what banks have received is white money. So the whole purpose for the exercise is yet to be ascertained and some time is required to examine and after that only we can say,"

Bokil said in an interactive session organised by Junior Chamber International (JCI) here. During his presentation he suggested that there should not be any note with denomination higher than Rs 50. He said the main reason for banning currency notes with high value denomination is that the notes were not serving the intended purpose but had turned into a hoardable commodity. "There are three main reasons for note ban. One is the currency note has not become medium. Second is the currency notes are not sustainable and the third is it has become source for counterfeit notes," he said. He further said that in cash transactions, there is no trail and it is unaccountable whereas in digital payments are transparent and traceable

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Currency demonetisation decision lies with govt:

 RBI Amidst demand by Yoga guru Ramdev of banning currency notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000, the Reserve Bank today said the decision to demonetise a currency is taken by the government not the regulator. Amidst demand by Yoga guru Ramdev of banning currency notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000, the Reserve Bank today said the decision to demonetise a currency is taken by the government not the regulator. "These decisions (of banning Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes) are taken by the government and not the RBI. 

The central bank only prints currency notes, denominations are decided by the government," Reserve Bank Deputy Governor K C Chakrabarty said here, to a query over Baba Ramdev''s demand on discontinuation of high value currency notes. He was talking to reporters on the sidelines of a programme organised by International Management Institute. Ramdev, who is on an indefinite fast against corruption and black money, is demanding that the government should ban currency notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 denominations to check corruption. However, experts believe that it would not be an easy task for the government to take out Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes from circulation.

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 The IMF has said India's demonetisation would have limited impact on Nepal

 As it projected a 5.5 percent growth rate for the Himalayan country in the current fiscal year. "India's sudden withdrawal of high-denomination banknotes is expected to have a limited impact on activity overall; bank holdings of Indian rupee currency are small but some corporates and households who hold such notes have seen their purchasing power affected," the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its annual report on Nepal. "The main risk to the outlook pertains to failure of capital budget implementation to improve," the IMF said, noting that Nepal's economy is rebounding after a slowdown caused by the 2015 earthquakes and trade disruptions, supported by the government's reform efforts. Stating that IMF expects growth will reach 5.5 percent in fiscal 2016-2017, IMF said strong policies are needed to enhance confidence amid ongoing political uncertainty, and to meet the authorities long-term goal of becoming a middle-income country by 2030.

 A IMF team, led by Geert Almekinders, visited Nepal from January 11-23, to hold discussions. The team met Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Krishna Bahadur Mahara, Central Bank Governor Chiranjibi Nepal, and other high-level government officials. The team also met with representatives of the private sector, labour unions, and the donor community. "Nepal's economy is rebounding following a slowdown caused by the 2015 earthquakes and trade disruptions, supported by the government's efforts to revitalise the reform agenda. The key challenge now is to put policies in place that will extend the cyclical recovery into a sustained period of high and inclusive growth," Almekinders said. According to him, the normalisation of economic activity is being supported by a good monsoon, accommodative monetary policy and rising government spending. 

"The normalisation of prices in the aftermath of last year's trade disruption is pushing down inflation which is expected to undershoot the authorities' mid-2017 inflation target of 7.5 percent," he added. The IMF said maintaining competitiveness and external balance will require closing the inflation wedge with India on a sustained basis through a tightening of monetary policy, facilitated by a strengthening of the monetary policy framework. "Efforts are also needed to narrow the gap in productivity growth with India and other trading partners and to improve the business environment," he said.

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Budget 2017: Health insurers seek tax incentives to boost 

Penetration Health insurance providers feel tax incentives to salaried class on purchase of health insurance should be raised.  exemption of service tax on health insurance premiums and preventive health check-ups can prompt more people to buy health cover.  Health insurance providers are expecting the Finance Minister Arun Jaitley to announce several measures to improve penetration and widen popularity of health covers. "Insurance, as of today, is treated as a compulsion and not as an essential component. The thought needs to be re-classified. The government can do much in changing this perception and help increase the insurance penetration in India," says M Ravichandran, President-Insurance at Tata AIG General Insurance Company. Ravichandran feels the tax incentives to salaried class for health insurance should be increased. 

More can be done for the salaried class. Currently, if one purchases a health insurance policy for self/spouse/children, the insured can claim a tax deduction of up to Rs 25,000. When one purchases a health insurance policy for parents (a senior citizen), the person is eligible for an additional tax deduction benefit up to Rs 30,000. Given the rising cost on medical expenditures, it would be even more beneficial if they could provide further tax benefits under Section 80D of the Income Tax Act," he said. Sandeep Patel, MD & CEO at Cigna TTK Health Insurance, calls for tax exemption on health covers. "As health insurance is still not adopted as a necessity for one’s self and family, there is an impending need for further tax exemption. There is an urgent need to provide an incentive for individual and family to build a safety net in the virtual absence of a government-backed social security system and rising health care costs in the country.

 Exemption of service tax on term products for life and health insurance premiums and preventive health check-ups can help achieve the purpose to a large extent,” Patel said. Insurers feel the rising healthcare costs require a greater awareness towards health insurance protection. "Rising health care costs has made it very difficult for the general public to have an access to quality health care services," says Tapan Singhel, MD & CEO of Bajaj Allianz General Insurance Co. Singhel feels Finance Minister Jaitley should consider mandatory health cover for all employees. "The government should make it mandatory for employers, both in the organised and unorganised sectors to provide health cover to all their employees. Currently, we have an Employee’s State Insurance scheme modelled for the organised sector. However it remains limited to a certain segment of employees," Singhel says. He feels a national health scheme by the government in line with the Pradhan Mantri Suraksha Bima Yojana (PMSBY) especially for those from the underprivileged sections of the society would ensure that a sizeable population is covered against unforeseen medical exigencies.

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Oil firms after producer meeting, but high US output weighs

 OPEC and non-OPEC countries have made a strong start to lowering their oil output under the first such pact in more than a decade, energy ministers said on Sunday as producers look to reduce oversupply and support prices. Oil firms after producer meeting, but high US output weighs Oil edged up on statements over the weekend from OPEC and other producers that they have been successfully implementing output cuts, but gains were limited by a surge in US drilling. OPEC and non-OPEC countries have made a strong start to lowering their oil output under the first such pact in more than a decade, energy ministers said on Sunday as producers look to reduce oversupply and support prices.

 Ministers said 1.5 million of almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) had already been taken out of the market. "It is the weaker dollar to start the week and comments over the weekend from OPEC and non-OPEC producer that compliance has been very good, giving a bit of boost to oil prices," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA brokerage in Singapore. "Oil is trading in a range. In the medium term it is going to be tough for oil to break out. The more oil goes up, the more these shale drillers are going to hedge by the futures." Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, was trading at USD55.55 per barrel at 0215 GMT, up 6 cents from its last close. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 5 cents at USD53.27 a barrel.

 US energy companies last week added the most rigs drilling for new production in almost four years. Drillers added 29 rigs in the week to January 20, bringing the total count up to 551, the most since November 2015, energy services firm Baker Hughes said on Friday. US oil production has risen over 6 percent since mid-2016, although it remains 7 percent below historic high in 2015. It is back to levels of late 2014, when high US crude output contributed to a crash in oil prices. On the technical front, Brent may climb up to USD56.55 per barrel, as it has cleared resistance at USD55.43, according to Wang Tao, Reuters analyst for commodities and energy technicals. Hedge funds rushed to place bullish wagers on US crude oil last week, data showed on Friday. The US dollar fell against the euro and yen on Tuesday after a drop in oil prices suggested US inflation would stay low and prevent the Federal Reserve from hiking interest rates at a steady pace this year, while risk aversion also boosted the euro and yen. A weaker dollar makes the greenback-priced commodities cheaper for importer holding other currencies 

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Trump may weigh on stocks but earnings may surprise: 

However, there are two reasons why Indian markets could do well: the economy could bounce back from demonetisation- induced slowdown and the Budget and GST  rollout may be positive triggers, says Arvind Sanger, Managing Partner, Geosphere Capital Management. Founder & Managing Partner, Geosphere Capital Management | Capital Expertise: Equity - Fundamental Error loading player: No playable sources found New US President Donald Trump's inaugural speech was no different from candidate 

Trump's rhetoric, centering around the promise of making every decision on trade, taxes, immigration and foreign trade with "America first" being the priority. Trump's statements could mean emerging markets could stay rangebound till the President articulates his policies more clearly, says Arvind Sanger, Managing Partner, Geosphere Capital Management that should Trump indulge in protectionism and impose trade barriers, the move should be "disruptive". "Emerging economies that are trade dependent could see some slowdown and India IT firms. They are already facing technological challenges and could see more headwinds," says Sanger. Lewis 

Alexander of Nomura says that Trump's perceived hard line on immigration may not be such a "straight line" after all, but did not rule out the possibility of a trade war among countries on his watch. "[However] there is currently too much optimism about the US economy, so one will have wait for a month to see how things pan out," he said. Talking about earnings in India, Sanger says numbers have not been as disappointing as expected but have been mixed with a positive bias. "Q3 earnings haven't seen the full impact of demonetisation." However, there are two reasons why Indian markets could do well: the economy could bounce back from demonetisation induced slowdown and the Budget and GST rollout may be positive triggers, Sanger added 

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Sebi freezes bank, demat accounts of Bharatiya Real Estate

 The order comes after the company and its directors failed to comply with Sebi's direction of making refund to investors. Sebi freezes bank, demat accounts of Bharatiya Real Estate Coming down heavily in investor refund case involving a little over Rs 99 lakh, regulator Sebi has ordered freezing of bank and demat accounts of Bharatiya Real Estate Development and its directors. The order comes after the company and its directors failed to comply with Sebi's direction of making refund to investors. The firm had raised Rs 99.06 lakh by issuing 'Redeemable Preference Shares' to investors without complying with the public issue norms under the Companies Act.

 Following this, in an attachment order dated January 19, Sebi ordered freezing of bank accounts of Bharatiya Real Estate Development and its five directors -- Soumen Majumder, Pankaj Upadhyay, Sekh Abdul Ajim, Subhas Koley and Tarunkumar Das. Similarly, Sebi has ordered depositories - NSDL and CDSL - to attach all demat accounts of the defaulters. The markets watchdog told banks and depositories that there was "sufficient reason" to believe that the defaulter may dispose of the amount or securities and "realisation of amount due under the certificate would in consequence be delayed or obstructed". In January 2016, Sebi had directed Bharatiya Real Estate Development and its directors to refund the money it had illegally raised by issuing redeemable preference shares. They had been directed to refund the money raised through RPS along with an interest of 15 percent per annum 

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