Trump may weigh on
stocks but earnings may surprise:
However, there are two reasons why Indian markets could do well: the economy could bounce back from demonetisation- induced slowdown and the Budget and GST rollout may be positive triggers, says Arvind Sanger,
Managing Partner, Geosphere Capital Management.
Founder & Managing Partner, Geosphere Capital Management | Capital
Expertise: Equity - Fundamental
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New US President Donald Trump's inaugural speech was no different from
candidate
Trump's rhetoric, centering around the promise of making every
decision on trade, taxes, immigration and foreign trade with "America
first" being the priority.
Trump's statements could mean emerging markets could stay rangebound
till the President articulates his policies more clearly, says Arvind
Sanger, Managing Partner, Geosphere Capital Management that should Trump
indulge in protectionism and impose trade barriers, the move should be
"disruptive".
"Emerging economies that are trade dependent could see some slowdown and
India IT firms. They are already facing technological challenges and
could see more headwinds," says Sanger.
Lewis
Alexander of Nomura says that Trump's perceived hard line on immigration may not be such a "straight line" after all, but did not
rule out the possibility of a trade war among countries on his watch.
"[However] there is currently too much optimism about the US economy, so
one will have wait for a month to see how things pan out," he said.
Talking about earnings in India, Sanger says numbers have not been as
disappointing as expected but have been mixed with a positive bias. "Q3
earnings haven't seen the full impact of demonetisation."
However, there are two reasons why Indian markets could do well: the economy could bounce back from demonetisation induced slowdown and the
Budget and GST rollout may be positive triggers, Sanger added
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