The Fed is sending a
strong message about a March rate hike
Four Fed presidents spoke Tuesday, and all indicated an interest rate
hike could be considered in March. "All are on the same page, including
hawks and doves, and especially Dudley," said Tom Simons, money market
economist at Jefferies.
The Fed is sending a strong message about a March rate hike
The Fed chorus about a possible March interest rate hike is getting much
louder, and an upcoming inflation report could clinch what was until
recently considered a long shot.
The latest Federal Reserve official to push the the group's March
meeting into play was New York Fed President William Dudley, viewed as a
close ally of Fed Chair Janet Yellen and a central figure in the Federal Open Market Committee.
Dudley "case for monetary tightening has become more
compelling."
Four Fed presidents spoke Tuesday, and all indicated an interest rate
hike could be considered in March. "All are on the same page, including
hawks and doves, and especially Dudley," said Tom Simons, money market
economist at Jefferies.
Treasury yields shot up after Dudley's comments. The 2-year yield
reached 1.28 percent, its highest level of the year, and well off the
day's low of 1.16 percent. The 2-year note is the most sensitive to Fed
rate hikes.
"He stoked the flames. When he says the case for tightening is a lot
more compelling, to me that's a sign that they are getting things
together for March now," said Simons. Most Fed watchers have been
forecasting a June rate hike, though strong inflation and retail sales
data and hawkish comments from Yellen raised the odds for March and May
in recent weeks.
Odds got even higher as more Fed presidents chimed in about a March
hike. By some measures, the market odds for a March hike jumped to about
70 percent from
just over 50 percent after Dudley's comments, according to Peter Boockvar of the Lindsey Group.
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